Pedro Sánchez president again: What happens next

NEWLY sworn-in national president Pedro Sánchez is now starting the challenging task of building his cabinet among a very divided coalition, although several names from his previous tenure are tipped to be returning to their rôles.

The socialist (PSOE) leader, who has been in power since 2018, looked set to regret his gamble of bringing forward the 2023 general elections from November to July when the party's key opposition team – the right-wing PP – gained the most votes.

But with no party holding an outright majority, a coalition would be required – and only one feasible partner for the PP, being the far-right Vox, did not hold enough seats to make up the numbers.

Sánchez would have the support of the leftist party Sumar, a coalition of Podemos breakaway groups and Podemos itself – made up of the Catalunya-based branch of the latter, En Comú Podem, the satellite groups in the capital, Más Madrid and Más País, and the regional party in Valencia, Compromís.

Set up by Sánchez's then deputy president Yolanda Díaz, who took over after Podemos' founder Pablo Iglesias quit politics, Sumar is said to be likely to hold four to five ministerial leadership positions, but the original Podemos figureheads may not end up with any key rôles.

Also, in order to amass enough votes to be sworn in as president in his final investiture ceremony on Thursday, November 16, Sánchez needed to gain the support of various regional parties, including those in Catalunya who are in favour of the north-eastern territory's bid to become an independent country.

Sánchez negotiates with Catalunya's pro-independence politicians 

This secession movement is outlawed by the Spanish Constitution, and an attempt to hold an illegal referendum on October 1, 2017 led to a number of Catalunya politicians fleeing the country to avoid arrest.

Having gained promises of votes in favour from the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), Sumar, and the Catalunya Left Republicans (ERC), Sánchez sought to strike a deal with Junts per Catalunya (JxCat), formerly led by exiled regional president Carles Puigdemont.

With Puigdemont's having been living in Belgium for six years – knowing he would be immediately arrested if he returned to Spain for his leading part in organising the unrecognised independence referendum – Sánchez agreed to an amnesty for all politicians involved in the controversial secession vote.

He also opened the door to Catalunya's direct participation in European Union institutions, given that Spain holds the rotating EU presidency rôle until the end of this year.

Already, the region's co-official language, catalán, has now been recognised at EU level for political debate and negotiation purposes – in the same way as Irish Gaelic and Maltese for these two predominantly English-speaking nations.

Whilst an initial agreement for Sánchez to be invested as president was struck ahead of the final Parliamentary vote, discrepancies continue between the PSOE and JxCat – in particular, the most thorny issue is that the latter wants to be allowed to hold an independence referendum within the terms of the Constitution, meaning the act of doing so would not be against the law.

Another sticking point is that Catalunya wants to be able to hang onto 100% of the taxes it earns from the region's inhabitants and businesses, rather than handing over the standard proportion to the State, giving it an unprecedented amount of economic independence.

Whether or not this is deemed workable, it could open the door to other regions demanding the same treatment, leaving the State with a dramatically-reduced source of funding.

Backlash over Catalunya secession amnesty – which remains up in the air

As yet, Sánchez's agreement to the amnesty for Catalunya's pro-independence politicians – which the president himself said ahead of July's elections that he was not prepared to consider – may still fall through the cracks, since the law permitting it will have to be signed off in Parliament.

And even if enough votes in favour of it allow the amnesty to become law, the courts may block it if they consider the move to be in breach of the Constitution.

Unless and until the amnesty comes into effect, Puigdemont will not be able to return to Spain to live, as he desires, since doing so would automatically lead to his arrest.

Puigdemont has made his stance clear on this hurdle: “Unlike during his previous tenure, where Sánchez's stability in office was guaranteed from the start, he will now have to earn it – deal by deal, day by day.”

If JxCat withdrew its support now Sánchez is officially sworn in as president, it would not automatically remove him from the position. Instead, it would leave his government in a minority, making it nearly impossible to push through new legislation, and could pave the way for his opponents to deliver a no-confidence motion and call a fresh election.

Such is the strength of feeling about Catalunya's attempt at secession that opposing parties have accused Sánchez of 'trying to break up Spain' and 'offering a blank cheque to the independence movement'.

Meanwhile, protests – some of them violent – have been taking place nightly outside the national PSOE headquarters on Madrid's C/ Ferraz.

Deadlock among coalition partners

Within the coalition, backbiting has led to what appears to be an irretrievable breakdown in the relationship between Podemos and the rest of Sumar, with Yolanda Díaz even publicly calling for an end to the 'thinly-veiled attacks' on her person from certain Podemos members.

Podemos wants Pablo Iglesias' wife and former minister for equality Irene Montero to be given her job back, but Sánchez and Díaz have refused.

Sra Montero's fate was unfortunately sealed when a very well-intentioned piece of legislation turned out to contain a loophole that those it was meant to protect the public against were able to use to their advantage.

Known as the 'Only Yes Means Yes Law', Irene Montero's star project took great leaps in the battle against sexism and misogyny, with tougher penalties for rape, sexual assault and sexual abuse, and criminalising sexual harassment, verbal and physical, in any setting.

But the section on sentencing ended up allowing numerous convicted sex offenders to be released early by taking the literal definitions in the legislation text, rather than being subjected to the 'spirit of the law'.

Irene Montero has become a red line for both Podemos – who says her taking on the rôle of equality minister is non-negotiable – and Díaz and Sánchez, who have vetoed the move.

In an attempt to appease Podemos, Yolanda Díaz proposed that the party's Secretary of State for Social Rights Nacho Álvarez, an economist, take on a ministerial position.

But Podemos' Ione Belarra says her party's ministers 'will be chosen by Podemos', not by the PSOE or Sumar.

This then led to Álvarez's resigning from all his posts within Podemos, citing lack of support from his party colleagues.

With Podemos' having insisted it should have at least one ministerial post, and sticking to its conviction of 'Irene Montero or nobody', the party appears to be in a deadlock with Sumar.

Ministers expected to return to their rôles

Although no decisions have been made concerning who will head up which ministries, and how many Sumar – or indeed, Podemos – will hold, certain names have been flagged up by political analysts as likely to be included.

María Jesús Montero – no relation to Irene – is expected to continue at the head of the Treasury, with Teresa Ribera staying in her job as minister for environment and ecological transition.

Pilar Alegría, who was education minister prior to the elections, is tipped to stay put, as is Félix Bolaños, who was in charge of presidential administration.